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Utah economy

Housing Market: Are Utah and Idaho Stable Places to Buy a Home?

Yes, housing markets in the West — including Utah — went haywire after the COVID-19 pandemic sent many Americans shopping.

The rush for housing in fast-growing and relatively more affordable areas like the West has sent prices skyrocketing. But now that rising mortgage rates are tempering demand, does that mean prices are about to plummet?

The answer to this question is nuanced. While experts aren’t predicting home values ​​will plummet like they did in 2006, some say it’s possible that prices in particularly “overvalued” regional markets could see prices fall by as much as 10% over the next year, perhaps even up to 20% if an economic recession hits. Some economists have particularly looked at Boise, Idaho as an area with the greatest chance of this happening.

But what about Utah?

Beehive State, with its years-long housing shortage, rapid population growth, strong job market, and desirable proximity to world-class hiking and skiing, still faces quite a significant housing demand – and economists have ranked its regional markets as having a lower risk of falling home prices than the Boise market.

And this week, CNBC ranked Utah first for having the most “stable” housing market, according to the outlet’s America’s Top States for Business study.

“No matter how you look at it, the housing market in the Beehive State is booming,” CNBC reported.

“Prices are rising at the second highest rate in the nation, but with the fastest pace of construction in the nation, plenty of new inventory is on the way to Utah. Foreclosures are manageable and home equity is strong in the country’s largest housing market.

CNBC also had a more optimistic rating for Idaho than other economists like Moody’s Analytics, which told Fortune Boise prices could fall by up to 20% in a recession.

Instead, CNBC ranked Idaho as the No. 5 most stable housing market in the nation.

“Idaho’s housing market has been a gangbuster for some time now. Buying a home in the Gem State is not for the faint of heart,” CNBC reported. “But new construction is slowly starting to relieve the inventory squeeze. Rising foreclosures are a potential red flag if the economy tips into a recession.

Here’s how CNBC’s “stable” housing markets ranked. The outlet considered the states’ economic rankings in 2022, year-over-year price appreciation, new construction by year, and the rate of foreclosures and insolvencies for the ranking.

1.Utah

Economic ranking 2022: No. 6 (Top States Grade: A).

Appreciation: 27.1%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 12.2.

Seizure rate: 1 in 2,063 dwellings.

Underwater mortgages: 1.4%.

2.Washington

Economic ranking 2022: No. 3 (Top States Grade: A).

Appreciation: 20.1%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 7.3.

Seizure rate: 1 in 4,965 dwellings.

Underwater mortgages: 1.2%.

3. Florida

Economic ranking 2022: No. 4 (Top States Grade: A).

Appreciation: 25.7%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 9.6.

Seizure rate: 1 dwelling out of 1,211.

Underwater mortgages: 1.4%.

4.Texas

Economic ranking 2022: No. 8 (Top States Grade: A-).

Appreciation: 19.3%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 8.9.

Seizure rate: 1 in 2,326 dwellings.

Underwater mortgages: 2.5%.

5.Idaho

Economic ranking 2022: No. 5 (Top States Grade: A).

Appreciation: 27%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 10.5.

Seizure rate: 1 in 6,015 dwellings.

Underwater mortgages: 1.6%.

6. Tennessee

Economic ranking 2022: No. 2 (Top State Grade: A+).

Appreciation: 24.1%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 8.2.

Seizure rate: 1 dwelling out of 2,797.

Underwater mortgages: 2.9%.

7. Vermont

Economic ranking 2022: No. 33 (Top State Grade: D+).

Appreciation: 20%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 3.2.

Seizure rate: 1 in 13,930 homes.

Underwater mortgages: 1.1%.

8.Arizona

Economic ranking 2022: No. 22 (tie) (Top States Grade: C-).

Appreciation: 27.4%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 9.

Seizure rate: 1 dwelling in 1,861.

Underwater mortgages: 1.4%.

9. South Carolina

Economic ranking 2022: No. 13 (tie) (Top States Grade: B-).

Appreciation: 21.4%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 9.5.

Seizure rate: 1 dwelling out of 1,081.

Underwater mortgages: 3.4%.

10. South Dakota

Economic ranking 2022: No. 12 (Top States Grade: B-).

Appreciation: 20.1%.

Housing starts per 1,000 inhabitants: 8.8.

Seizure rate: 1 in 17,724 dwellings.

Underwater mortgages: 4.8%.

Mary Cashion

The author Mary Cashion